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Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage

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  • Kascha, Christian
  • Trenkler, Carsten

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical comparison of various selection and penalized regression approaches for forecasting with vector autoregressive systems. In particular, we investigate the effect of the system size as well as the effect of various prior specification choices on the relative and overall forecasting performance of the methods. The data set is a typical macroeconomic quarterly data set for the US. We find that these specification choices are crucial for most methods. Conditional on certain choices, the variation across different approaches is relatively small. There are only a few methods which are not competitive under any scenario. For single series, we find that increasing the system size can be helpful - depending on the employed shrinkage method.

Suggested Citation

  • Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:38872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    2. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etienne, 2018. "Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 408-430.
    3. Tarassow, Artur, 2019. "Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-457.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR Models ; Forecasting ; Model Selection ; Shrinkage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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