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Perspective for the Vietnamese Economy in the Context of Asia and the Paci c: An econometric analysis with a global macro econometric model



Within the transition period to a market oriented economy, Vietnam attracts foreign capitals to strengthen the supply-side economy. Especially, FDI plays a very important role to be achieving an export-led growth and contributes to the steady economic growth at 6-8% per annum. According to the scenario forecasts by means of the global model system, it is expected that the Vietnamese economy is likely to experience a high growth achieving a take-off stage with an export-led growth in the strong economic growth in Asia. It is noteworthy that the Vietnamese macro imbalances including I-S and trade imbalance, and so on, are also expected to be improved if FDI will be increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Osamu Nakamura, 2010. "Perspective for the Vietnamese Economy in the Context of Asia and the Paci c: An econometric analysis with a global macro econometric model," Working Papers EMS_2010_13, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2010_13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579.
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    More about this item


    FDI; take-off stage; macro-econometric model; scenario forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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