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Growth Performance in Portugal Since the 1960’s: A Simultaneous Equation Approach with Cumulative Causation Characteristics

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  • Elias Soukiazis

    () (Faculdade de Economia Universidade de Coimbra / GEMF)

  • Micaela Antunes

    (Faculdade de Economia Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explain growth performance in Portugal in the last decades through a multi-equation system with cumulative growth characteristics. The model uses a demand-orientated approach to determine the main relationships which explain growth through a virtuous cycle. The idea is to identify the driving forces of growth with causal linkages and feedback tendencies that turn the process self-sustained. The multi-equation growth model is estimated by 3SLS to capture more efficiently the interrelations between the main growth forces and to control for the endogeneity of the regressors. Our evidence shows that the proposed model can successfully be used to explain the Portuguese growth performance, highlighting the importance of exports competitiveness as the key factor in this process. The cumulative growth process can be interrupted at some points mainly due to the incapacity of transferring productivity gains into domestic prices and to turn the economy more competitive. Capital accumulation is also shown not to affect productivity growth and domestic prices not to improve exports competitiveness. These are the main drawbacks of the Portuguese economy that could explain the failure to achieve higher growth rates in the last decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes, 2011. "Growth Performance in Portugal Since the 1960’s: A Simultaneous Equation Approach with Cumulative Causation Characteristics," GEMF Working Papers 2011-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2011-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Micaela Antunes & Elias Soukiazis, 2009. "How well the balance-of- payments constraint approach explains the Portuguese growth performance: empirical evidence for the 1965-2008 period," GEMF Working Papers 2009-13, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Nicholas Kaldor, 1975. "What is Wrong with Economic Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 347-357.
    3. Fulvio Castellacci, 2002. "Technology Gap and Cumulative Growth: Models and outcomes," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 333-346.
    4. Bernard Fingleton, 2000. "Convergence: International comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 285-305.
    5. Kennedy, Charles & Thirlwall, A P, 1972. "Technical Progress: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(325), pages 11-72, March.
    6. Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-214, July.
    7. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    8. Lydia Greunz, 2001. "European regional growth, technology gap and R&D efforts," ERSA conference papers ersa01p92, European Regional Science Association.
    9. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Poças & Elias Soukiazis, 2013. "Explaining the interrelations between health, education and standards of living in Portugal. A simultaneous equation approach," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 167-187.
    2. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Tavares-Lehmann, Ana Teresa, 2014. "Human capital intensity in technology-based firms located in Portugal: Does foreign ownership matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 737-748.
    3. Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Pedro André Cerqueira, 2017. "Growth adjustments through non-price competitiveness and productivity. A cumulative causation approach," CeBER Working Papers 2017-01, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cumulative growth; multi-equation system; exports competitiveness; productivity gap; 3SLS regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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