Innovation, diffusion and cumulative causation: changes in the Spanish growth regime, 1960-2001
This article presents a model of macroeconomic growth that combines in a single formalization two complementary views on innovation and economic growth, the technology-gap approach and the Kaldorian theory of cumulative causation. The model suggests that what matters for economic growth in the long run is the existence of a good match between the patterns of technological change, income distribution and demand growth. The model is estimated for the Spanish economy during the period 1960-2001, and the econometric results show that important changes have happened in its growth regime over time. Since the 1980s, innovation and diffusion of new technologies provide with a greater stimulus to productivity growth, but the technology push on the supply-side is not sustained by the prevailing patterns of income distribution and demand growth.
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