IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mde/wpaper/0068.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Figueira

    () (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

The current paper aims at analysing the long Portuguese output stagnation during the period 2001-2014. Using a VEC model, the effect of exports, investment, public external liabilities and the country’s risk premium on growth is analysed. Our study reveals that, in the long run, Portuguese GDP is determined by exports, the country’s risk-premium and capital formation while in the short-run, growth is negatively affected by the country’s risk premium and external public liabilities. Our findings also support the vulnerability of the Portuguese economy to external developments, in particular, we identified a negative effect of China’s higher trade integration and the relevance of world market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_68.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth Performance in Portugal since the 1960s: A Simultaneous Equation Approach with Cumulative Causation Characteristics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 169-192.
    2. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2006. "Consumption, Disposable Income and Liquidity Constraints," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?," Working Papers w200805, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
    5. Vitor Constancio & Ana Cristina Leal & Mário Centeno & Nuno Alves & Isabel Correia & Sandra Gomes & João Sousa & Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Carlos Robalo Marques & Fern, . "The Portuguese Economy in the Context of Economic, Financial and Monetary Integration," Books, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number bk200901.
    6. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2007. "Adjusting to the euro," Working Paper Series 716, European Central Bank.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    9. Paulo Esteves & Sónia Cabral, 2006. "Portuguese Export Market Shares: An Analysis by Selected Geographical and Product Markets," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Niko Gobbin & Glenn Rayp, 2008. "Different ways of looking at old issues: a time-series approach to inequality and growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 885-895.
    11. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Jorge M. Andraz & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 267-287, August.
    13. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portuguese Economy; Economic Stagnation; Growth Determinants; VEC model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Pinheiro Alves). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/geegvpt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.