IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w200805.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?

Author

Listed:
  • Fátima Cardoso
  • Paulo Esteves

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of Portuguese terms of trade over the last decades. Firstly, their evolution is described: (i) terms of trade registered an upward trend since the second half of the 80s, after the apparent stability observed since 1950; (ii) this was a generalized phenomenon across OECD countries; (iii) and it was specially linked to a very contained evolution of import prices. Secondly, terms of trade are broken down by groups of products, and their evolution is decomposed into two components. The first component results from differences in the composition of import and export baskets of goods (inter-sector specialization), while the second emerges from deviations from the law of one price in each sector (intra-sector segmentation). The results show that terms of trade developments were dominated by the specialization effects related to the evolution of oil prices. Excluding energy and focusing in the manufactured goods, the increase in terms of trade is strongly connected with the positive evolution of relative prices inside each sector, in particular in the usually designated traditional sectors: textiles, clothing and footwear. The effects of globalization on import prices and the structural changes in those manufacturing sectors in Portugal are pointed out as explanations for this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?," Working Papers w200805, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200805
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200805.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magomedov, Rustam (Магомедов, Рустам) & Idrisova, Vittoria (Идрисова, Виттория), 2018. "Sectoral Indices of the Terms of Trade: Development of Methodology and Overview for Russia [Отраслевые Индексы Условий Торговли: Разработка Методики И Обзор Для России]," Working Papers 061822, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Josef Loening & Masato Higashi, 2011. "Decomposing terms of trade fluctuations in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1219-1224.
    3. Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Håkon Tretvoll, 2021. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 173-208, July.
    2. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Josef Loening & Masato Higashi, 2011. "Decomposing terms of trade fluctuations in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1219-1224.
    4. Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2018. "Does Scientific And Technical Research Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 68-88, January.
    5. Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004. "Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 487-514, December.
    6. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    7. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit, 2014. "Do Developing Countries Possess any Built-in Mechanism that Copes with External Terms-of-trade Shocks?," MPRA Paper 57736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "Globalisation, Structural Changes in Exports and the Portuguese Terms of Trade," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    10. Margaret S. McMillan & Alix Peterson Zwane & Nava Ashraf, 2007. "My Policies or Yours: Does OECD Support for Agriculture Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 183-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Magomedov, Rustam (Магомедов, Рустам) & Idrisova, Vittoria (Идрисова, Виттория), 2018. "Sectoral Indices of the Terms of Trade: Development of Methodology and Overview for Russia [Отраслевые Индексы Условий Торговли: Разработка Методики И Обзор Для России]," Working Papers 061822, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Biswas, Anindya, 2016. "Endogenous labour market imperfection, foreign direct investment and external terms-of-trade shocks in a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 416-424.
    14. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit, 2015. "Endogenous Labour Market Imperfections, FDI and External Terms-of-Trade Shocks in a Developing Economy," MPRA Paper 61594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/281, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "External terms-of-trade and labor market imperfections in developing countries: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 59193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    20. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.