La transformation postsocialiste chinoise : ouverture économique et contrainte extérieure
The starting point of this article is that China’s post-socialist transformation has involved a change in its growth regime. Indeed, during the Maoist era, it took the form of a “forced growth” as theorized by Kornai (1972). In addition, “export aversion” was one of the main characteristics of Chinese external economic relations. Today, it is not the case anymore since China follows an export-led growth strategy. Nevertheless, this situation could be particularly difficult to manage with respect to its dependence on external demand in a context of low domestic-demand. Résumé : Le point de départ de l’article est l’idée selon laquelle la transformation postsocialiste chinoise a entraîné un changement de régime de croissance. En effet, pendant la période maoïste, ce dernier prenait l’aspect d’une croissance forcée telle que théorisée par Kornai (1972). Les relations économiques extérieures étaient par ailleurs marquées par une certaine « aversion à l’exportation ». Ce n’est plus le cas aujourd’hui puisque le régime de croissance chinois est désormais fondé sur une stratégie de type export-led growth. Cette situation n’est néanmoins pas sans poser de problèmes, en particulier celui de la dépendance vis-à-vis de la demande étrangère dans un contexte de demande interne faible.
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