IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/109821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy

Author

Listed:
  • Dávila-Fernández, Marwil
  • Oreiro, José

Abstract

The role of the real exchange rate in explaining long-run processes of catching-up and falling-behind continues to be a question of central importance among alternative theories of growth and distribution. Existing empirical evidence suggests a positive association between exchange rates in levels and growth, especially in developing countries, though a currency depreciation has adverse effects. While these two elements have been separately incorporated into demand-led growth theories, a comprehensive assessment of the dynamic interaction between them is still missing. This article attempts to fill such a gap in the literature by developing an export-led growth model in which price and non-price competitiveness respond to the level and variation of the real exchange rate. In equilibrium, relative prices and the fundamentals of the productive structure are simultaneously determined. A more depreciated exchange rate and higher non-price competitiveness are associated with a higher rate of growth. It is shown that the interplay between a destabilising force from the goods market, and a stabilising mechanism from the labour market, might give rise to persistent and endogenous long-run cycles of structural change. Furthermore, the introduction of periodic Schumpeterian innovation waves generate irregular fluctuations similar to those observed in real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109821/1/MPRA_paper_109821.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Piero Manfredi & Luciano Fanti, 2006. "Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 536-563, November.
    3. John McCombie & Maurizio Pugno & Bruno Soro (ed.), 2002. "Productivity Growth and Economic Performance," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50423-3, June.
    4. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2020. "The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 163-181.
    5. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    6. João P. Romero & John S. L. McCombie, 2016. "The Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law: evidence from 14 developed European countries using product-level data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 301-325, May.
    7. Eckhard Hein & Artur Tarassow, 2010. "Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 727-754.
    8. João P. Romerojpromero & Gustavo Britto, 2017. "Increasing returns to scale, technological catch-up and research intensity: endogenising the Verdoorn coefficient," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 391-412.
    9. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2014. "Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 215-237.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    11. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    12. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    13. Luciano Boggio & Laura Barbieri, 2017. "International competitiveness in post-Keynesian growth theory: controversies and empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 25-47.
    14. Velupillai, K. Vela, 2006. "A disequilibrium macrodynamic model of fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 752-767, December.
    15. Stefano Zambelli, 2018. "The aggregate production function is NOT neoclassical [Econometric tools for analyzing market outcomes]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 383-426.
    16. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    17. Mark Setterfield, 2012. "The Remarkable Durability of Thirlwall’s Law," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 3, pages 83-110, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Rapetti Martin, 2020. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: A Survey," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-054, December.
    19. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 620-640, November.
    20. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics, chapter 12, pages 286-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684boj041a440irqd is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2017. "Endogenous Technical Change In Alternative Theories Of Growth And Distribution," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1272-1303, December.
    23. Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S.L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "A reconciliation proposal of demand-driven growth models in open economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 226-244, May.
    24. Rapetti Martin, 2020. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: A Survey," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-054, December.
    25. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Thirlwall’s law, uneven development, and income distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 592-611, July.
    26. John S. L. McCombie & Marta R. M. Spreafico, 2016. "Kaldor’s ‘technical progress function’ and Verdoorn’s law revisited," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 1117-1136.
    27. Olivier Allain, 2019. "Demographic growth, Harrodian (in)stability and the supermultiplier," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-106.
    28. Botta, Alberto, 2009. "A structuralist North-South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 61-73, March.
    29. Rafael S. M. Ribeiro & John S. L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2016. "Exchange Rate, Income Distribution and Technical Change in a Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 545-565, October.
    30. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    31. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    32. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    33. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579.
    34. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203-1203, December.
    35. Ugo Pagano, 2014. "The crisis of intellectual monopoly capitalism," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(6), pages 1409-1429.
    36. Michael T. Hannan & L·szlÛ PÛlos & Glenn R. Carroll, 2004. "The evolution of inertia," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 213-242, February.
    37. Pugno, Maurizio, 1996. "A Kaldorian model of economic growth with labour shortage and major technical changes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 429-449, December.
    38. João P Romero, 2019. "A Kaldor–Schumpeter model of cumulative growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(6), pages 1597-1621.
    39. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    40. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1971. "Conflicts in National Economic Objectives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(321), pages 1-16, March.
    41. Luciano Boggio, 2003. "A Model of Take‐Off and Fast Growth in Open Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 301-325, May.
    42. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-374, June.
    43. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    44. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    45. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    46. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2014. "Unemployment, income distribution and debt-financed investment in a growth cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 325-348.
    47. Andreoni, Antonio & Chang, Ha-Joon, 2019. "The political economy of industrial policy: Structural interdependencies, policy alignment and conflict management," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 136-150.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    2. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Structural change in a growing open economy: Attitudes and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 358-385.
    5. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2019. "From open economies to attitudes towards change. Growth and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Department of Economics University of Siena 809, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. Leonarda Srdelić & Marwil Jhonatan Dávila-Fernández, 2022. "International trade and economic growth in Croatia," Working Papers 64, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    8. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    9. Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2021. "Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of PoliticalEconomy," CAFE Working Papers 12, Centre for Applied Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    10. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    11. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Alternative approaches to technological change in a small open economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 279-317, April.
    12. Jose Luis da Costa Oreiro & Stefan Wilson d'Amato & Luciano Luiz Manarin D'Agostini & Paulo Sergio de Oliveira Simoes Gala, 2022. "Measuring the technological backwardness of middle-and low-income countries: The employment quality gap and its relationship with the per capita income gap," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(301), pages 139-159.
    13. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.
    14. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    16. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    17. Danilo Spinola, 2021. "The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 189-212, February.
    18. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo, 2013. "Cumulative causation in a structural economic dynamic approach to economic growth and uneven development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 130-140.
    19. Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    20. Nomaler, Önder & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Verspagen, Bart, 2023. "Demand-led industrialisation policy in a dual-sector small open economy," MERIT Working Papers 2023-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Demand-led growth; Competitiveness; Real exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.