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A Reconciliation Proposal of Demand-driven Growth Models in Open Economies

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  • Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro
  • John S. L. McCombie, Gilberto Tadeu Lima

Abstract

This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on demand-driven Keynesian models of growth in open economies by developing a formal model that combines Dixon and Thirlwall’s (1975) export-led growth model and Thirlwall’s (1979) balance-of-payments constrained growth models into a more general specification. Then, we built upon the model developed in this paper in order to analyse more broadly some important issues concerning the net impact of a currency depreciation on the short-run growth rate. We demonstrate that this impact can go either way, depending on some conditions such as the average share of imported intermediate inputs in prime costs of domestic firms and the institutional capacity of trade unions to set wages through the bargaining process. The model also shows that the effectiveness of a competitive real exchange rate to promote growth is higher in countries where the share of labour in domestic income is also higher. Lastly, we run some simulations to illustrate the impact of a devaluation on short-term growth rate in different scenarios. The simulations demonstrate how the pattern of convergence of the actual growth rate towards the equilibrium growth rate is intrinsically linked to the institutional framework of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S. L. McCombie, Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2016. "A Reconciliation Proposal of Demand-driven Growth Models in Open Economies," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_01, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(6), pages 1019-1039.
    3. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
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    6. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield, 2008. "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 435-461, April.
    7. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, December.
    8. Maurizio Pugno, 1998. "The Stability of Thirlwall’s Model of Economic Growth and the Balance-Of-Payments Constraint," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 559-581, July.
    9. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    10. J.S.L. McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2002. "The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
    12. Blecker, Robert A, 1989. "International Competition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 395-412, September.
    13. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Competitiveness, Relative Wages, and the Balance-Of-Payments Constraint," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 495-526, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    7. Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2021. "Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of PoliticalEconomy," CAFE Working Papers 12, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance-of-payments constraint; exchange rate; income distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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