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An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules

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  • Julián Andrada-Félix
  • Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez
  • María Dolores García-Artiles
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbour predictors. Our results, based on applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange, suggest that, taking into account trading costs, the non-linear trading rule is superior to a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy (both in terms of returns and of Sharpe ratios) for the 1998 and 1999 periods of upward trend. In contrast, for the relatively "stable" market period of 2000, we found that both strategies generate equal returns, although the risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy yields a higher Sharpe ratio.

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  • Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & María Dolores García-Artiles & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules," Working Papers 2001-16, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2001-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.
    2. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    3. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
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    6. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
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    9. F. FernAndez-RodrIguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FElix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122.
    10. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October.
    11. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
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    13. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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    15. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:7:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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