Non-linear trading rules in the New York Stock Exchange
In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbour (NN)predictors. Applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange, our results suggest that, taking into account transaction costs, the NN-based trading rule is superior to both a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy and a linear ARIMA-based strategy in terms of returns for all of the years studied (1997-2002). Regarding other profitability measures, the NN-based trading rule yields higher Sharpe ratios than the ARIMA-based strategy for all of the years in the sample except for 2001. As for 2001, in 36 out of the 101 cases considered, the ARIMA-based strategy gives higher Sharpe ratios than those from the NN-trading rule, in 18 cases the opposite is true, and in the remaining 36 cases both strategies yield the same ratios.
|Date of creation:||May 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Hardle, W., 1992.
"Applied Nonparametric Methods,"
9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Härdle, W.K., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- F. FernAndez-RodrIguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FElix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122.
- Oliver LINTON, .
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Sweeney, Richard J., 1988. "Some New Filter Rule Tests: Methods and Results," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 285-300, September.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999.
"A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp322, Financial Markets Group.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns,"
90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
- repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
- Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:can:series:2004-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Patricia Santana)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.