Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO_2 Emissions Using State-Level Information
We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO_2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Volume (Year): 94 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995.
"Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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