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Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO_2 Emissions Using State-Level Information

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilian Auffhammer

    (University of California, Berkeley and NBER)

  • Ralf Steinhauser

    (Australian National University)

Abstract

We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO_2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Auffhammer & Ralf Steinhauser, 2012. "Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO_2 Emissions Using State-Level Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 172-185, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:94:y:2012:i:1:p:172-185
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Doupe, 2014. "The Costs of Error in Setting Reference Rates for Reduced Deforestation," CCEP Working Papers 1415, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Chen, Cuicui & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2016. "Collective Action in an Asymmetric World," Working Paper Series 16-019, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Buck, Steven & Soldati, Hilary & Sunding, David L., 2015. "Forecasting Urban Water Demand in California: Rethinking Model Evaluation," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205737, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Hua Liao & Huaishu Cao, 2012. "How does carbon dioxide emission change with the economic development? Statistical experiences from 132 countries," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 54, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    5. Steven Lugauer & Richard Jensen & Clayton Sadler, 2014. "An Estimate Of The Age Distribution'S Effect On Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 914-929, April.
    6. Christoph Jeßberger, 2011. "Multilateral Environmental Agreements up to 2050: Are They Sustainable Enough?," ifo Working Paper Series 98, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Wei, Chu, 2015. "Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 217-229.
    8. Doupe, Patrick, 2014. "The costs of error in setting reference rates for reduced deforestation," Working Papers 249497, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    9. Yang, Haisheng & He, Jie & Chen, Shaoling, 2015. "The fragility of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Revisiting the hypothesis with Chinese data via an “Extreme Bound Analysis”," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 41-58.
    10. Xueting Zhao & J. Burnett, 2014. "Forecasting province-level $${\text {CO}}_{2}$$ CO 2 emissions in China," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 171-183, October.
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:886-:d:99649 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yanan Liu & Yixuan Gao & Yu Hao & Hua Liao, 2016. "The Relationship between Residential Electricity Consumption and Income: A Piecewise Linear Model with Panel Data," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-11, October.
    13. James G. Baldwin & Ian Sue Wing, 2013. "The Spatiotemporal Evolution Of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Stylized Facts And Implications For Climate Policy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 672-689, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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