MEXICAN MAQUILA INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. A Quantitative Space-Time Analysis
The aim of this article is to analyse the current situation and the short and mid term outlook of the maquila export industry in Mexico. The purpose is to carry out an analysis of quantitative economic conjuncture, by conveniently combining the necessary elements. Therefore, we have used an empiric base- relevant information expressed in monthly statistical time series of the Mexican value added of export income charged by maquila service (VAECMS) in national and state levels- and quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). Under this framework, we present a methodological proposal in order to analyse ARIMA models with outliers and calendar effects, then we use a reduced model for the signal extraction. The trend-cycle component is the most suitable way to consider the underlying evolution. From this component and from the growth rate and inertial behaviour we are able to extract the major conclusions of the current Mexican export maquila situation in general as well as in detail in the principal states of the country.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- F. Javier Trivez & Javier Nievas, 1998. "Analyzing the effects of level shifts and temporary changes on the identification of ARIMA models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 409-424.
- Maravall, Agustin & Pierce, David A, 1986. "The Transmission of Data Noise into Policy Noise in U.S. Monetary Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 961-79, July.
- Mendoza, Jorge Eduardo, 2002.
"Educación, experiencia y especialización manufacturera en la frontera norte de México
[Schooling, experience and manufacturing specialization along the northern border of Mexico]," MPRA Paper 2811, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2002.
- Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
- Ledolter, Johannes, 1989. "The effect of additive outliers on the forecasts from ARIMA models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-240.
- F. Javier Trivez & Javier Nievas, 1996. "Comportamiento en muestras pequeñas de los atípicos innovacionales: Un ejercicio de simulación," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 5, pages 161-175, Junio.
- Wai-Sum Chan, 1995. "Understanding the effect of time series outliers on sample autocorrelations," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 179-186, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:9:y2009:i:9_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.