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A Macroeconomic Model for Romania's Flexible Exchange Rate System

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  • Lord, Montague J.

Abstract

The transition process of the Romanian economy motivated the design of a model that provides for a parsimonious representation of the structure of the economy, exploits the increased availability of data for the system of national accounts, and recognizes time-variant parameters that can result from the transition process. The major features of the model include (1) the simultaneous determination of the overall production and expenditures of the Romanian economy, (2) the development of income concepts by sector, (3) the determination of wages and prices in each sector, and (4) the determination of value added by the primary and secondary sector within the system of equations. The results allow for considerable flexibility in its usage for forecasting, selection of the policy mix and instruments for the targets of a program, and the determination of the appropriate sequencing of policies. USAID/Romania and National Commission for Economic Forecasting of the Council for Coordination, Strategy, and Economic Reform of the Government of Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Lord, Montague J., 1994. "A Macroeconomic Model for Romania's Flexible Exchange Rate System," MPRA Paper 41162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41162
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41162/1/MPRA_paper_41162.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
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    5. Nguyen, Hoa & Grote, Ulrike, 2004. "Agricultural policies in Vietnam," MTID discussion papers 79, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Lord, Montague, 2002. "Vietnam’s Export Competitiveness: Trade and Macroeconomic Policy Linkages," MPRA Paper 50638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Romania; macroeconometric model; model simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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