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Chômage, déficit, dette publique. Quelles marges pour les cinq prochaines années ?

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  • Éric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

This study provides a framework for reflection for the public debate on the trajectory of the economy for the next five years, "with unchanged environment and commitments kept". By 2022, the French economy growth will on average at a level close to 1.6%, rate slightly higher than its potential growth (1,3 %). The likelihood that the economy will return in recession, or that average growth will be above 3.0%, is extremely low (close to 5%).The unemployment rate will gradually decline to 8% at the end of 2022. This scenario allow a gradual reduction in the general government deficit to 1.2 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Public debt will reduced to 90.8 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Classification JEL : C53, E20, E62.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2017. "Chômage, déficit, dette publique. Quelles marges pour les cinq prochaines années ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 135-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_151_0135
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    Keywords

    Monte Carlo simulations; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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