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Investigating The Evolution Of Ron/Eur Exchange Rate: The Choice Of Appropriate Model

Author

Listed:
  • Liviu-Stelian BEGU

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Silvia Spataru

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Erika Marin

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The volatility of currency exchange rates can be considered as an useful measure of uncertainty about the economic environment of a country.The paper aims to investigate the evolution of the daily RON/EURO exchange rate between January 5th, 2009 and October 12, 2012. Several appropriate models are used and discussed, from ARCH, GARCH models to EGARCH and TGARCH models, trying to capture the main features of the analysed data. The periods of low and high volatility are discussed and analysed in correlation to the negative and positive shocks. The used models are able to model asymmetries in volatility forecasts allowing for asymmetric responses in volatility to the positive and negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Liviu-Stelian BEGU & Silvia Spataru & Erika Marin, 2012. "Investigating The Evolution Of Ron/Eur Exchange Rate: The Choice Of Appropriate Model," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 23-39, DECEMBER.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:jsesro:v:1:y:2012:i:2:p:23-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P., 1998. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 273-278, December.
    2. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea-Cristina PETRICĂ & Stelian STANCU & Alexandru TINDECHE, 2016. "Limitation of ARIMA models in financial and monetary economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 19-42, Winter.
    2. Andreea-Cristina PETRICĂ & Stelian STANCU & Alexandru TINDECHE, 2016. "Limitation of ARIMA models in financial and monetary economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 19-42, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; volatility; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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