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Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices

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Abstract

We analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative prices. This is then estimated in I(1) space. An impulse response analysis using the results suggests that higher real import prices reduce real wages, such that the impact of an external shock on domestic inflation is moderated. This explains why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged. In contrast, high real import prices in 1974 increased inflation because wage accommodation effects were absent.

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  • Heino Bohn Nielsen & Christopher Bowdler, 2003. "Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices," Economics Papers 2003-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0305
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    1. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1998. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 69-96, February.
    2. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
    3. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2007. "The Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration Ranks In The I(2) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 615-637, August.
    4. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
    5. repec:cup:etheor:v:23:y:2007:i:04:p:615-637 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
    8. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
    9. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
    10. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, June.
    11. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
    2. Takamitsu Kurita & Heino Bohn Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2009. "An I(2) Cointegration Model With Piecewise Linear Trends: Likelihood Analysis And Application," Discussion Papers 09-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3665-3678, August.
    4. Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "Labour Markets Institutions and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD panel data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    I(2); Impulse response analysis; Inflation; Import price shock;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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