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Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices

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Abstract

We analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative prices. This is then estimated in I(1) space. An impulse response analysis using the results suggests that higher real import prices reduce real wages, such that the impact of an external shock on domestic inflation is moderated. This explains why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged. In contrast, high real import prices in 1974 increased inflation because wage accommodation effects were absent.

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  • Heino Bohn Nielsen & Christopher Bowdler, 2003. "Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices," Economics Papers 2003-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0305
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3665-3678, August.
    3. Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
    4. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "Labour Markets Institutions and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD panel data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë Mchugh, 2007. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 143-158, June.
    7. Takamitsu Kurita & Heino Bohn Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2009. "An I(2) Cointegration Model with Piecewise Linear Trends: Likelihood Analysis and Application," CREATES Research Papers 2009-28, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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