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Inflation Adjustment in the Open Economy: An I(2) Analysis of UK Prices

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Abstract

We analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative prices. This is then estimated in I(1) space. An impulse response analysis using the results suggests that higher real import prices reduce real wages, such that the impact of an external shock on domestic inflation is moderated. This explains why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged. In contrast, high real import prices in 1974 increased inflation because wage accommodation effects were absent.

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File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2003/W5/UKI(2).pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2003-W05.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 13 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0305
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/

Keywords: I(2); Impulse response analysis; Inflation; Import price shock;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • F0 - International Economics - - General

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  1. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, 06.
  2. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1994. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 8, Stockholm School of Economics.
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:23:y:2007:i:04:p:615-637 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
  5. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
  7. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2007. "The Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration Ranks In The I(2) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 615-637, August.
  8. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  9. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
  10. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
  11. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
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Cited by:

  1. Francesca DI IORIO & Stefano FACHIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2013. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis Testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Working Papers 395, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  2. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "Labour Markets Institutions and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD panel data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Economics Papers 2005-W25, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Takamitsu Kurita & Heino Bohn Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2009. "An I(2) Cointegration Model With Piecewise Linear Trends: Likelihood Analysis And Application," Discussion Papers 09-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

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