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A Note on the Validity of Cross-Validation for Evaluating Time Series Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Bergmeir
  • Rob J Hyndman
  • Bonsoo Koo

Abstract

One of the most widely used standard procedures for model evaluation in classification and regression is K-fold cross-validation (CV). However, when it comes to time series forecasting, because of the inherent serial correlation and potential non-stationarity of the data, its application is not straightforward and often omitted by practitioners in favor of an out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation. In this paper, we show that the particular setup in which time series forecasting is usually performed using Machine Learning methods renders the use of standard K-fold CV possible. We present theoretical insights supporting our arguments. Furthermore, we present a simulation study where we show empirically that K-fold CV performs favourably compared to both OOS evaluation and other time-series-specific techniques such as non-dependent cross-validation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Bergmeir & Rob J Hyndman & Bonsoo Koo, 2015. "A Note on the Validity of Cross-Validation for Evaluating Time Series Prediction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2015-10
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Borra, Simone & Di Ciaccio, Agostino, 2010. "Measuring the prediction error. A comparison of cross-validation, bootstrap and covariance penalty methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 2976-2989, December.
    2. Bergmeir, Christoph & Costantini, Mauro & Benítez, José M., 2014. "On the usefulness of cross-validation for directional forecast evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 132-143.
    3. Racine, Jeff, 2000. "Consistent cross-validatory model-selection for dependent data: hv-block cross-validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 39-61, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alain Hecq & Luca Margaritella & Stephan Smeekes, 2023. "Granger Causality Testing in High-Dimensional VARs: A Post-Double-Selection Procedure," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 915-958.
    3. Pinto, Jeronymo Marcondes & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2019. "Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach," Textos para discussão 498, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Thierry Moudiki & Frédéric Planchet & Areski Cousin, 2018. "Multiple Time Series Forecasting Using Quasi-Randomized Functional Link Neural Networks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Paolo Maranzano & Alessandro Fassò & Matteo Pelagatti & Manfred Mudelsee, 2020. "Statistical Modeling of the Early-Stage Impact of a New Traffic Policy in Milan, Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher & Treichel, Alex, 2018. "Machine learning for time series forecasting - a simulation study," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Ferlito, S. & Adinolfi, G. & Graditi, G., 2017. "Comparative analysis of data-driven methods online and offline trained to the forecasting of grid-connected photovoltaic plant production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 116-129.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-validation; time series; auto regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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