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Measuring the prediction error. A comparison of cross-validation, bootstrap and covariance penalty methods

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  • Borra, Simone
  • Di Ciaccio, Agostino

Abstract

The estimators most widely used to evaluate the prediction error of a non-linear regression model are examined. An extensive simulation approach allowed the comparison of the performance of these estimators for different non-parametric methods, and with varying signal-to-noise ratio and sample size. Estimators based on resampling methods such as Leave-one-out, parametric and non-parametric Bootstrap, as well as repeated Cross Validation methods and Hold-out, were considered. The methods used are Regression Trees, Projection Pursuit Regression and Neural Networks. The repeated-corrected 10-fold Cross-Validation estimator and the Parametric Bootstrap estimator obtained the best performance in the simulations.

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  • Borra, Simone & Di Ciaccio, Agostino, 2010. "Measuring the prediction error. A comparison of cross-validation, bootstrap and covariance penalty methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 2976-2989, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:12:p:2976-2989
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    1. Chunming Zhang, 2008. "Prediction Error Estimation Under Bregman Divergence for Non‐Parametric Regression and Classification," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(3), pages 496-523, September.
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