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Los ciclos ganaderos en Colombia, 1950-2001

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  • Gerson Javier Pérez V

Abstract

El comportamiento cíclico del sector ganadero en Colombia es uno de los hechos más evidentes en la economía. En este trabajo se presenta un modelo que describe el proceso por el cual los ganaderos toman la decisión de destinar al animal para consumo (sacrificio) o para capitalización (crianza), y que lleva al comportamiento cíclico en el sector. De esta manera se ofrece una forma alternativa para realizar proyecciones futuras sobre algunas de las más importantes variables. El sistema inicial de ecuaciones permitió expresar el modelo teórico en términos de modelos ARMA para el inventario, el sacrifico y la crianza. Los resultados obtenidos fueron bastante favorables en dos aspectos: el primero es que los valores estimados de los parámetros aproximan muy de cerca los valores teóricos; en segundo lugar, las proyecciones realizadas lograron capturar las variaciones cíclicas de las variables y sus magnitudes, de tal manera que es posible utilizarlos para realizar pronósticos confiables de las variable

Suggested Citation

  • Gerson Javier Pérez V, 2004. "Los ciclos ganaderos en Colombia, 1950-2001," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 3160, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000102:003160
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.46
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    Keywords

    Ciclo ganadero;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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