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Testing rationality of price expectations on the basis of contingency tables

Listed author(s):
  • Emilia Tomczyk


    (Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics)

A method of analyzing rationality of expectations of economic agents, based on contingency tables, is applied to price expectations of Polish industrial enterprises. The source of data are surveys designed by the Economic Development Institute of the Warsaw School of Economics within the framework of business conditions surveys in industry. Empirical results clearly show that expectations of Polish entrepreneurs are not formed rationally. Rationality condition is confirmed in such a limited number of cases that it is not even feasible to differentiate between private and public enterprises as far as rationality of their expectations is concerned. Price expectations seem to be even more irrational than industrial production expectations analyzed earlier.

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Paper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2007
Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:1
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