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Inflation expectations in Poland

  • Tomasz Łyziak

    (National Bank of Poland)

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Characteristics of inflation expectations in Poland are diversified across the analysed groups of economic agents. Inflation expectations of financial sector analysts and enterprises outperform those of consumers in terms of their accuracy and information content, however also consumer inflation expectations are to some extent forward-looking.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/115_en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 115.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:115
Note: Proceedings from the NBP seminar “Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?”, December 5th, 2011.
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Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html

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  1. Emilia Tomczyk, 2007. "Testing rationality of price expectations on the basis of contingency tables," Working Papers 1, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  2. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, 02.
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