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Methods for Scenario-building: it’s importance for policy analysis

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  • Moniz, António

Abstract

A scenario is a policy analysis tool that describes a possible set of future conditions. The most useful scenarios (for corporations, for policy decision makers) are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. In this approach, the quantitative underpinning enriches the narrative evolution of conditions or evolution of the variables; narratives describe the important events and developments that shape the variables. In terms of innovative methods for policy analysis, the foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences. Some examples of these exercises will be present in this paper, either related to vision in science and technology developments, social and technological futures, or related to aggregated indicators on human development. Two cases (Japan and Germany) are held on behalf the ministries of science and education (respectively, MEXT and BMBF), and another with the support of United Nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Moniz, António, 2005. "Methods for Scenario-building: it’s importance for policy analysis," MPRA Paper 7893, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7893
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7893/1/MPRA_paper_7893.pdf
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8094/1/MPRA_paper_8094.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moniz, António, 2004. "Resultados provisórios do exercício Delphi WorTiS (1ª fase)
      [Provisional results of the 1st round of Delphi WorTiS exercise]
      ," MPRA Paper 5936, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    2. Moniz, António, 2004. "Discussão de temas de cenarização para a indústria automóvel para aplicação do método Delphi em Portugal
      [Discussion of scenario topics for the automotive industry to apply a Delphi method in Portu
      ," MPRA Paper 5933, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    3. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702773.
    4. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226702766 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdurrahman M. Yazan, 2016. "Methods Used in Future Technology Analysis and its Selection: an application to VTOL transportation system," IET Working Papers Series 03/2016, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    scenarios; policy analysis; foresight; forecasting methods; technological futures;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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    1. Socio-Economics of Innovation

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