IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtv/ceisrp/405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model

Author

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the evolution of public European LTC systems in the forthcoming decades, using the Europe Future Elderly Model (EuFEM), a dynamic microsimulation model which projects the health and socio-economic characteristics of the 50+ population of ten European countries, augmented with the explicit modelling of the eligibility rules of 5 countries. The use of SHARE data allows to have a better understanding of the trends in the demand for LTC differentiated by age groups, gender, and other demographic and social characteristics in order to better assess the distributional effects. We estimate the future potential coverage (or gap of coverage) of each national/regional public home-care system, and then disentangle the differences between countries in a population and a regulation effects. Our analysis offers new insights on how would the demand for LTC evolve over time, what would the distributional effects of different LTC policies be if no action is taken, and what could be potential impact of alternative care policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Ludovico Carrino & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2017. "The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model," CEIS Research Paper 405, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/RP405.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben Jann, 2007. "Making regression tables simplified," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 227-244, June.
    2. Schokkaert, Erik & Van de Voorde, Carine, 2009. "Direct versus indirect standardization in risk adjustment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 361-374, March.
    3. Adriaan Kalwij & Giacomo Pasini & Mingqin Wu, 2014. "Home care for the elderly: the role of relatives, friends and neighbors," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 379-404, June.
    4. Lynch, Jamie L. & von Hippel, Paul T., 2016. "An education gradient in health, a health gradient in education, or a confounded gradient in both?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 18-27.
    5. G�ng�r KARAKAYA, 2009. "Long-Term Care: Regional Disparities In Belgium," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    6. Peña-Longobardo, Luz María & Oliva-Moreno, Juan & García-Armesto, Sandra & Hernández-Quevedo, Cristina, 2016. "The Spanish long-term care system in transition: Ten years since the 2006 Dependency Act," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(10), pages 1177-1182.
    7. Dwyer, Debra Sabatini & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "Health problems as determinants of retirement: Are self-rated measures endogenous?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 173-193, April.
    8. Erika Schulz, 2010. "The Long-Term Care System in Denmark," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1038, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Kim, Hyuncheol Bryant & Lim, Wilfredo, 2015. "Long-term care insurance, informal care, and medical expenditures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 128-142.
    10. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Cristina Prieto, 2012. "The trade-off between formal and informal care in Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(4), pages 461-490, August.
    11. Mitchell P. LaPlante, 2010. "The Classic Measure of Disability in Activities of Daily Living Is Biased by Age but an Expanded IADL/ADL Measure Is Not," Journals of Gerontology: Series B, Gerontological Society of America, vol. 65(6), pages 720-732.
    12. Bonsang, Eric, 2009. "Does informal care from children to their elderly parents substitute for formal care in Europe?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 143-154, January.
    13. John Bound, 1991. "Self-Reported Versus Objective Measures of Health in Retirement Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(1), pages 106-138.
    14. Silvia Balia & Rinaldo Brau, 2014. "A Country For Old Men? Long‐Term Home Care Utilization In Europe," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1185-1212, October.
    15. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
    16. Claudine Meijer & Pieter Bakx & Eddy Doorslaer & Marc Koopmanschap, 2015. "Explaining Declining Rates of Institutional LTC Use in the Netherlands: A Decomposition Approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24, pages 18-31, March.
    17. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    18. Hugh Gravelle, 2003. "Measuring income related inequality in health: standardisation and the partial concentration index," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 803-819, October.
    19. de Meijer, Claudine & Koopmanschap, Marc & d' Uva, Teresa Bago & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2011. "Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-438, March.
    20. Esther Mot, 2010. "The Dutch system of long-term care," CPB Document 204, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Ludovico Carrino & Cristina Elisa Orso, 2014. "Eligibility and inclusiveness of Long-Term Care Institutional frameworks in Europe: a cross-country comparison," Working Papers 2014:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    22. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carole Bonnet & Sandrine Juin & Anne Laferrère, 2019. "Private Financing of Long‑Term Care: Income, Savings and Reverse Mortgages," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 507-508, pages 5-24.
    2. Abbygail Jaccard & Lise Retat & Martin Brown & Laura Webber & Zaid Chalabi, 2018. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Model Simulating an Individual’s Health State through Their Lifetime," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 100-121.
    3. Sergei Kovbasyuk & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2016. "Memory and Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1606, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ludovico Carrino & Cristina Elisa Orso, 2014. "Eligibility and inclusiveness of Long-Term Care Institutional frameworks in Europe: a cross-country comparison," Working Papers 2014:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Ludovico Carrino & Cristina Elisa Orso & Giacomo Pasini, 2018. "Demand of long‐term care and benefit eligibility across European countries," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1175-1188, August.
    3. Heger, Dörte & Korfhage, Thorben, 2016. "Care choices in Europe: To each according to his needs?," Ruhr Economic Papers 649, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Quitterie Roquebert & Jonathan Sicsic & Thomas Rapp, 2021. "Health measures and long-term care use in the European frail population," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 405-423, April.
    5. Matthias Firgo & Klaus Nowotny & Alexander Braun, 2020. "Informal, formal, or both? Assessing the drivers of home care utilization in Austria using a simultaneous decision framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(40), pages 4440-4456, August.
    6. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    7. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," Working Papers wp382, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Carrino, L.; & Nafilyan, V.; & Avendaño Pabon, M.;, 2019. "Should I Care or Should I Work? The Impact of Working in Older Age on Caregiving," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 19/23, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Matthias Firgo & Klaus Nowotny & Alexander Braun, 2017. "Austria 2025 – Informal, Formal, or Both? Assessing the Drivers of Home Care Utilisation in Austria Using a Simultaneous Decision Framework," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59741, February.
    10. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Matthias Firgo, 2018. "Aktuelle und künftige Versorgungsfunktion der mobilen Pflege- und Betreuungsdienste in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61563.
    11. Iegor Rudnytskyi & Joël Wagner, 2019. "Drivers of Old-Age Dependence and Long-Term Care Usage in Switzerland—A Structural Equation Model Approach," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Thomas Barnay, 2016. "Health, work and working conditions: a review of the European economic literature," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(6), pages 693-709, July.
    13. Wang, Huixia & Wang, Chenggang & Halliday, Timothy J., 2018. "Health and health inequality during the great recession: Evidence from the PSID," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 17-30.
    14. Richard Blundell & Jack Britton & Monica Costa Dias & Eric French, 2017. "The impact of health on labour supply near retirement," IFS Working Papers W17/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Bakx, Pieter & Wouterse, Bram & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Wong, Albert, 2020. "Better off at home? Effects of nursing home eligibility on costs, hospitalizations and survival," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. repec:pri:cepsud:95votruba is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Plaisier, Inger & Verbeek-Oudijk, Debbie & de Klerk, Mirjam, 2017. "Developments in home-care use. Policy and changing community-based care use by independent community-dwelling adults in the Netherlands," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 82-89.
    18. Nabanita Datta Gupta & Mona Larsen, 2010. "The impact of health on individual retirement plans: self‐reported versus diagnostic measures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 792-813, July.
    19. García-Gómez, Pilar & Hernández-Quevedo, Cristina & Jiménez-Rubio, Dolores & Oliva-Moreno, Juan, 2015. "Inequity in long-term care use and unmet need: Two sides of the same coin," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 147-158.
    20. Bakhtin, Maxim & Aleksandrova, Ekaterina, 2018. "Health and labor force participation of elderly Russians," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 49, pages 5-29.
    21. Maarten Lindeboom, 2012. "Health and Work of Older Workers," Chapters, in: Andrew M. Jones (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Microsimulation; Long Term Care; Forecast; disability; Regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.