Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?
In view of population aging, better understanding of what drives long-term care expenditure (LTCE) is warranted. Time-to-death (TTD) has commonly been used to project LTCE because it was a better predictor than age. We reconsider the roles of age and TTD by controlling for disability and co-residence and illustrate their relevance for projecting LTCE. We analyze spending on institutional and homecare for the entire Dutch 55+ population, conditioning on age, sex, TTD, cause-of-death and co-residence. We further examined homecare expenditures for a sample of non-institutionalized conditioning additionally on disability. Those living alone or deceased from diabetes, mental illness, stroke, respiratory or digestive disease have higher LTCE, while a cancer death is associated with lower expenditures. TTD no longer determines homecare expenditures when disability is controlled for. This suggests that TTD largely approximates disability. Nonetheless, further standardization of disability measurement is required before disability could replace TTD in LTCE projections models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
- Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
- Ciaran O'Neill & Lindsay Groom & Anthony J. Avery & Daphne Boot & Karine Thornhill, 2000. "Age and proximity to death as predictors of GP care costs: results from a study of nursing home patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(8), pages 733-738.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007.
"The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The value of life and the rise in health spending," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2004. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," NBER Working Papers 10737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liliana E. Pezzin & Peter Kemper & James Reschovsky, 1996. "Does Publicly Provided Home Care Substitute for Family Care? Experimental Evidence with Endogenous Living Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(3), pages 650-676.
- Thomas E. Getzen, 2001. "Aging and health care expenditures: A comment on Zweifel, Felder and Meiers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 175-177.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
- Van Houtven, Courtney Harold & Norton, Edward C., 2004. "Informal care and health care use of older adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1159-1180, November.
- Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
- Andrew M. Jones, 2012. "health econometrics," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Jones, Andrew M., 2000. "Health econometrics," Handbook of Health Economics,in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 265-344 Elsevier.
- Bonsang, Eric, 2009. "Does informal care from children to their elderly parents substitute for formal care in Europe?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 143-154, January.
- Eric Bonsang, 2008. "Does Informal Care from Children to their Elderly Parents Substitute for Formal Care in Europe?," CREPP Working Papers 0801, Centre de Recherche en Economie Publique et de la Population (CREPP) (Research Center on Public and Population Economics) HEC-Management School, University of Liège.
- France Weaver & Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton & William Spector, 2009. "Proximity to death and participation in the long-term care market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 867-883.
- Seshamani, Meena & Gray, Alastair M., 2004. "A longitudinal study of the effects of age and time to death on hospital costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 217-235, March.
- Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
- Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004. "Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
- Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
- Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999. "Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:425-438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.