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Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?

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  • OECD

Abstract

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning non-demographic drivers of health care, the projection method accounts for income elasticity and a residual effect of technology and relative prices. For long-term care, the effects of increased labour participation, reducing informal care, and wage inflation are taken into account. Using this integrated approach, public health and long-term care expenditure are projected for all OECD countries for the years 2025 and 2050. Alternative scenarios are simulated, in particular a 'cost-pressure' and 'cost-containment' scenario, together with sensitivity analysis. Depending on the scenarios, the total health and long-term care spending is projected to increase on average across OECD countries in the range of 3.5 to 6 percentage points of GDP for the period 2005-2050. Cette étude propose un cadre assez complet pour effectuer des projections de dépenses de soins de santé et de soins de long terme. Notamment, à la fois pour les dépenses de santé et les soins de long terme, les effets des facteurs démographiques et non démographiques sont considérés dans l'analyse. En comparaison avec d'autres études, les effets démographiques ont été élargis pour incorporer les coûts liés à la mortalité et à l'état de santé de la population. Pour ce qui concerne les facteurs non démographiques des dépenses de santé, la méthode de projection incorpore un effet d'élasticité-revenu et l'effet résiduel de la technologie et des prix relatifs. Pour les soins de long terme, l'effet d'une participation accrue dans le marché du travail diminuant l'offre de soins informels, et de l'inflation des salaires ont été pris en compte. Sur la base de cette approche intégrée, les dépenses publiques de santé et des soins de long terme sont projetées pour tous les pays de l'OCDE et pour les années 2025 et 2050. Des scénarios alternatifs ont été simulés, en particulier un "scénario de pression sur les coûts" et un "scénario de contention des coûts", ainsi qu’une analyse de sensitivité. En fonction des scénarios, le total des dépenses de santé et des soins de long terme est projeté d'augmenter pour la moyenne de l’OCDE entre 3.5 et 6 points de PIB pour la période 2005-2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:477-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/736341548748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    ageing populations; demographic and non-demographic effects; dépenses publiques de santé; dépenses publiques de soins à long terme; effets démographiques et non démographiques; long-term care expenditures; longevity; longévité; méthodes de projection; projection methods; public health expenditures; vieillissement de la population;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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