IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?

  • OECD
Registered author(s):

    This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning non-demographic drivers of health care, the projection method accounts for income elasticity and a residual effect of technology and relative prices. For long-term care, the effects of increased labour participation, reducing informal care, and wage inflation are taken into account. Using this integrated approach, public health and long-term care expenditure are projected for all OECD countries for the years 2025 and 2050. Alternative scenarios are simulated, in particular a 'cost-pressure' and 'cost-containment' scenario, together with sensitivity analysis. Depending on the scenarios, the total health and long-term care spending is projected to increase on average across OECD countries in the range of 3.5 to 6 percentage points of GDP for the period 2005-2050. Cette étude propose un cadre assez complet pour effectuer des projections de dépenses de soins de santé et de soins de long terme. Notamment, à la fois pour les dépenses de santé et les soins de long terme, les effets des facteurs démographiques et non démographiques sont considérés dans l'analyse. En comparaison avec d'autres études, les effets démographiques ont été élargis pour incorporer les coûts liés à la mortalité et à l'état de santé de la population. Pour ce qui concerne les facteurs non démographiques des dépenses de santé, la méthode de projection incorpore un effet d'élasticité-revenu et l'effet résiduel de la technologie et des prix relatifs. Pour les soins de long terme, l'effet d'une participation accrue dans le marché du travail diminuant l'offre de soins informels, et de l'inflation des salaires ont été pris en compte. Sur la base de cette approche intégrée, les dépenses publiques de santé et des soins de long terme sont projetées pour tous les pays de l'OCDE et pour les années 2025 et 2050. Des scénarios alternatifs ont été simulés, en particulier un "scénario de pression sur les coûts" et un "scénario de contention des coûts", ainsi qu’une analyse de sensitivité. En fonction des scénarios, le total des dépenses de santé et des soins de long terme est projeté d'augmenter pour la moyenne de l’OCDE entre 3.5 et 6 points de PIB pour la période 2005-2050.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/736341548748
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/736341548748 [303 See Other]--> http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/projecting-oecd-health-and-long-term-care-expenditures_736341548748). If this is indeed the case, please notify ()


    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 477.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Feb 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:477-en
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
    Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
    Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
    Web page: http://www.oecd.org
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:477-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.