IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhecon/v31y2012i6p876-887.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations

Author

Listed:
  • van Baal, Pieter H.
  • Wong, Albert

Abstract

Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981–2007. Forecasts for the years 2008–2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models’ forecasts of HCE for the 2008–2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.

Suggested Citation

  • van Baal, Pieter H. & Wong, Albert, 2012. "Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 876-887.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:876-887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629612001129
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Hognas, Goran, 2006. "Evaluating and extending the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
    3. Albert Wong & Pieter H. M. van Baal & Hendriek C. Boshuizen & Johan J. Polder, 2011. "Exploring the influence of proximity to death on disease‐specific hospital expenditures: a carpaccio of red herrings," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 379-400, April.
    4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
    5. repec:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2011.300361_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Thomas E. Getzen, 2001. "Aging and health care expenditures: A comment on Zweifel, Felder and Meiers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 175-177.
    7. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    8. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
    9. Getzen, Thomas E., 2000. "Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 259-270, March.
    10. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
    11. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501.
    12. Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314.
    13. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    14. Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
    15. Polder, Johan J. & Barendregt, Jan J. & van Oers, Hans, 2006. "Health care costs in the last year of life--The Dutch experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(7), pages 1720-1731, October.
    16. Wickstrom, Jannie & Serup-Hansen, Niels & Kristiansen, Ivar Sonbo, 2002. "Future health care costs--do health care costs during the last year of life matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-172, November.
    17. de Meijer, Claudine & Koopmanschap, Marc & d' Uva, Teresa Bago & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2011. "Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-438, March.
    18. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    19. Mickael Bech & Terkel Christiansen & Ehsan Khoman & Jørgen Lauridsen & Martin Weale, 2011. "Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 12(5), pages 469-478, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Geue & Andrew Briggs & James Lewsey & Paula Lorgelly, 2014. "Population ageing and healthcare expenditure projections: new evidence from a time to death approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(8), pages 885-896, November.
    2. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    3. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_951 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    5. Wubulihasimu, Parida & Gheorghe, Maria & Slobbe, Lany & Polder, Johan & van Baal, Pieter, 2015. "Trends in Dutch hospital spending by age and disease 1994–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 316-323.
    6. Martin Karlsson & Florian Klohn, 2014. "Testing the red herring hypothesis on an aggregated level: ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 533-551, June.
    7. repec:eee:socmed:v:184:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2013:9, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time to death; Health care expenditures; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:876-887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.