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Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations

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  • van Baal, Pieter H.
  • Wong, Albert

Abstract

Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981–2007. Forecasts for the years 2008–2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models’ forecasts of HCE for the 2008–2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.

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  • van Baal, Pieter H. & Wong, Albert, 2012. "Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 876-887.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:876-887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    3. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    4. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    5. Beata Gavurova & Kristina Kocisova, 2020. "The efficiency of hospitals: platform for sustainable health care system," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(2), pages 133-146, December.
    6. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    7. Carsten Colombier & Thomas Braendle, 2018. "Healthcare expenditure and fiscal sustainability: evidence from Switzerland," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 279-301.
    8. Wubulihasimu, Parida & Gheorghe, Maria & Slobbe, Lany & Polder, Johan & van Baal, Pieter, 2015. "Trends in Dutch hospital spending by age and disease 1994–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 316-323.
    9. Beata Gavurova & Samer Khouri & Viliam Kovac & Michaela Ferkova, 2020. "Exploration of Influence of Socioeconomic Determinants on Mortality in the European Union," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-21, June.
    10. Martin Karlsson & Florian Klohn, 2014. "Testing the red herring hypothesis on an aggregated level: ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 533-551, June.
    11. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni & Kim Rose Olsen & Dorte Gyrd‐Hansen, 2022. "Age, morbidity, or something else? A residual approach using microdata to measure the impact of technological progress on health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1184-1201, June.
    12. Maria Gheorghe & Susan Picavet & Monique Verschuren & Werner B. F. Brouwer & Pieter H. M. Baal, 2017. "Health losses at the end of life: a Bayesian mixed beta regression approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(3), pages 723-749, June.
    13. Jonas Krämer & Jonas Schreyögg, 2019. "Demand-side determinants of rising hospital admissions in Germany: the role of ageing," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(5), pages 715-728, July.
    14. Moore, Patrick V. & Bennett, Kathleen & Normand, Charles, 2017. "Counting the time lived, the time left or illness? Age, proximity to death, morbidity and prescribing expenditures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2013:9, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    16. Viera Ivanková & Rastislav Kotulič & Jaroslav Gonos & Martin Rigelský, 2019. "Health Care Financing Systems and Their Effectiveness: An Empirical Study of OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Pieter van Baal & Meg Perry‐Duxbury & Pieter Bakx & Matthijs Versteegh & Eddy van Doorslaer & Werner Brouwer, 2019. "A cost‐effectiveness threshold based on the marginal returns of cardiovascular hospital spending," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 87-100, January.
    18. Simon Chang & Yang He & Chee‐Ruey Hsieh, 2014. "The Determinants Of Health Care Expenditure Toward The End Of Life: Evidence From Taiwan," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 951-961, August.
    19. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time to death; Health care expenditures; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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