Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations
Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981–2007. Forecasts for the years 2008–2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models’ forecasts of HCE for the 2008–2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005.
"The Determinants of Mortality,"
235, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing..
- David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Determinants of Mortality," Working Papers 164, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- David M. Cutler & Angus S. Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Working Papers id:359, eSocialSciences.
- David M. Cutler & Angus S. Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," NBER Working Papers 11963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cutler, David & Lleras-Muney, Adriana & Deaton, Angus, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Scholarly Articles 2640588, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
- Wickstrom, Jannie & Serup-Hansen, Niels & Kristiansen, Ivar Sonbo, 2002. "Future health care costs--do health care costs during the last year of life matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-172, November.
- Albert Wong & Pieter H. M. van Baal & Hendriek C. Boshuizen & Johan J. Polder, 2011. "Exploring the influence of proximity to death on disease‐specific hospital expenditures: a carpaccio of red herrings," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 379-400, April.
- Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006.
"Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying,"
Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
- Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004. "Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501.
- Thomas E. Getzen, 2001. "Aging and health care expenditures: A comment on Zweifel, Felder and Meiers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 175-177.
- Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Hognas, Goran, 2006. "Evaluating and extending the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
- Polder, Johan J. & Barendregt, Jan J. & van Oers, Hans, 2006. "Health care costs in the last year of life--The Dutch experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(7), pages 1720-1731, October.
- De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B. & Stevens, R., 2010. "Longevity risk," Other publications TiSEM fa89b4b3-82f5-4c65-8c2c-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Mickael Bech & Terkel Christiansen & Ehsan Khoman & Jørgen Lauridsen & Martin Weale, 2011. "Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 12(5), pages 469-478, October.
- Getzen, Thomas E., 2000. "Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 259-270, March.
- Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314.
- Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
- de Meijer, Claudine & Koopmanschap, Marc & d' Uva, Teresa Bago & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2011. "Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-438, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:876-887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.