IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhecon/v57y2018icp60-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: Implications for an ageing population

Author

Listed:
  • Howdon, Daniel
  • Rice, Nigel

Abstract

This paper uses Hospital Episode Statistics, English administrative data, to investigate the growth in admitted patient health care expenditures and the implications of an ageing population. We use two samples of around 40,000 individuals who (a) used inpatient health care in the financial year 2005/06 and died by the end of 2011/12 and (b) died in 2011/12 and had some hospital utilisation since 2005/06. We use a panel structure to follow individuals over seven years of this administrative data, containing estimates of inpatient health care expenditures (HCE), information regarding individuals’ age, time-to-death (TTD), morbidities at the time of an admission, as well as the hospital provider, year and season of admission. We show that HCE is principally determined by proximity to death rather than age, and that proximity to death is itself a proxy for morbidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Howdon, Daniel & Rice, Nigel, 2018. "Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: Implications for an ageing population," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 60-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:60-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629617310020
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    2. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of ‘red herrings’?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126, October.
    3. Albert Wong & Pieter H. M. van Baal & Hendriek C. Boshuizen & Johan J. Polder, 2011. "Exploring the influence of proximity to death on disease‐specific hospital expenditures: a carpaccio of red herrings," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 379-400, April.
    4. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Optimal Aging And Death: Understanding The Preston Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 672-701, June.
    5. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
    6. Laura Romeu Gordo, 2011. "Compression of morbidity and the labour supply of older people," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 503-513.
    7. Eric French & Jeremy Mccauley & Maria Aragon & Pieter Bakx & Martin Chalkley & Stacey H. Chen & Bent J. Christensen & Hongwei Chuang & Aurelie Côté-Sergent & Mariacristina de Nardi & Elliott Fan & Dam, 2017. "End-Of-Life Medical Spending In Last Twelve Months Of Life Is Lower Than Previously Reported," Post-Print halshs-01631529, HAL.
    8. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    9. van de Ven, Wynand P. M. M. & Beck, Konstantin & Buchner, Florian & Chernichovsky, Dov & Gardiol, Lucien & Holly, Alberto & Lamers, Leida M. & Schokkaert, Erik & Shmueli, Amir & Spycher, Stephan & Van, 2003. "Risk adjustment and risk selection on the sickness fund insurance market in five European countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 75-98, July.
    10. Office of Health Economics, 2007. "The Economics of Health Care," For School 001490, Office of Health Economics.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3881 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. de Meijer, Claudine & Koopmanschap, Marc & d' Uva, Teresa Bago & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2011. "Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-438, March.
    13. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963, September.
    14. Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327, April.
    15. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    16. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    17. Maria Gheorghe & Werner B. F. Brouwer & Pieter H. M. van Baal, 2015. "Quality of Life and Time to Death," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 35(3), pages 316-327, April.
    18. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    19. Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health‐care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314, April.
    20. Eric French & Elaine Kelly & María José Aragón & Martin Chalkley & Nigel Rice, 2016. "Medical Spending and Hospital Inpatient Care in England: An Analysis over Time," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 405-432, September.
    21. Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero & Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. Menachem Katz & Mr. Robert A Feldman & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Peter Kohnert & Ziba Farhadian & Mr. Donogh McDonald & Ahsan S. Mansur & Mr. Bernard N, 1986. "Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025," IMF Occasional Papers 1986/005, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Martin Karlsson & Florian Klohn, 2014. "Testing the red herring hypothesis on an aggregated level: ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 533-551, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    2. Joan Costa‐Font & Cristina Vilaplana‐Prieto, 2020. "‘More than one red herring'? Heterogeneous effects of ageing on health care utilisation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(S1), pages 8-29, October.
    3. Kasteridis, Panagiotis & Rice, Nigel & Santos, Rita, 2022. "Heterogeneity in end of life health care expenditure trajectory profiles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 221-251.
    4. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    5. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    6. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni & Kim Rose Olsen & Dorte Gyrd‐Hansen, 2022. "Age, morbidity, or something else? A residual approach using microdata to measure the impact of technological progress on health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1184-1201, June.
    7. Silvia Balia & Rinaldo Brau, 2014. "A Country For Old Men? Long‐Term Home Care Utilization In Europe," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1185-1212, October.
    8. Atella, Vincenzo & Conti, Valentina, 2014. "The effect of age and time to death on primary care costs: The Italian experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 10-17.
    9. Marc Carreras & Pere Ibern & José María Inoriza, 2018. "Ageing and healthcare expenditures: Exploring the role of individual health status," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 865-876, May.
    10. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring Ageing, time-to-death & care costs for older people in Sweden," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77470, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Vincenzo Atella & Valentina Conti, 2013. "The effect of age and time to death on health care expenditures: the Italian experience," CEIS Research Paper 267, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Nov 2013.
    12. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    13. Caravaggio, Nicola & Resce, Giuliano, 2023. "Enhancing Healthcare Cost Forecasting: A Machine Learning Model for Resource Allocation in Heterogeneous Regions," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23090, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    14. Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2013:9, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    15. Wubulihasimu, Parida & Gheorghe, Maria & Slobbe, Lany & Polder, Johan & van Baal, Pieter, 2015. "Trends in Dutch hospital spending by age and disease 1994–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 316-323.
    16. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 03-06, 04.
    17. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    18. Fabio Pammolli & Francesco Porcelli & Francesco Vidoli & Monica Auteri & Guido Borà, 2017. "La spesa sanitaria delle Regioni in Italia - Saniregio2017," Working Papers CERM 01-2017, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    19. Moore, Patrick V. & Bennett, Kathleen & Normand, Charles, 2017. "Counting the time lived, the time left or illness? Age, proximity to death, morbidity and prescribing expenditures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Viktor von Wyl, 2019. "Proximity to death and health care expenditure increase revisited: A 15-year panel analysis of elderly persons," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    H51; J11; I19; Health care expenditures; Ageing; Time-to-death; Morbidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:60-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.