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Public Spending on Health and Long-term Care: A new set of projections

Author

Listed:
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve

    (OECD)

  • Joaquim Oliveira Martins

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections till 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A costcontainment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2013. "Public Spending on Health and Long-term Care: A new set of projections," OECD Economic Policy Papers 6, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:6-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k44t7jwwr9x-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Amy Finkelstein & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1079-1095, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jeborg:v:143:y:2017:i:c:p:186-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:kap:hcarem:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10729-016-9376-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ludovico Carrino & Cristina Elisa Orso, 2014. "Eligibility and inclusiveness of Long-Term Care Institutional frameworks in Europe: a cross-country comparison," Working Papers 2014:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Rodríguez-Míguez, E. & Abellán-Perpiñán, J.M. & Alvarez, X.C. & González, X.M. & Sampayo, A.R., 2016. "The DEP-6D, a new preference-based measure to assess health states of dependency," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 210-219.
    5. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Korfhage, Thorben, 2015. "Indirect fiscal effects of long-term care insurance," Ruhr Economic Papers 584, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. repec:eee:joecag:v:9:y:2017:i:c:p:156-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:kap:hcarem:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10729-016-9379-x is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Armel Ngami & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Pollution and Growth: The Role of Pension on the Efficiency of Health and Environmental Policies," AMSE Working Papers 1815, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
    9. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_713 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing populations; demographic and non-demographic effects; long-term care expenditures; longevity; projection methods; public health expenditures;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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