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Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun's law revisited

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  • Ibragimov Marat

    ()

  • Jovlon Karimov

    ()

  • Elena Permyakova

    ()

Abstract

Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of the study is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and econometric methods. The paper further focuses on the analysis of the behavior of unemployment and Gross Domestic Product in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Ukraine and Uzbekistan in different periods of their economic development during 2000-2010. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The report provides the results and discussions on the practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons; as well as those on the value of the models for economic forecasting and policy decisions. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibragimov Marat & Jovlon Karimov & Elena Permyakova, 2013. "Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun's law revisited," EERC Working Paper Series 13/04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/04e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Tsyplakov, 2007. "A guide to the world of instruments (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 2, pages 21-47, March.
    2. Hubert Gabrisch & Herbert Buscher, 2006. "The Relationship between Unemployment and Output in Post-communist Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276.
    3. Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
    4. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    5. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
    6. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    7. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
    8. II & Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue qiv, pages 73-103.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    2. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Okun’s Law and Long Term Co-Integration Analysis for OECD Countries (1987-2012)," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 77-85.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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