Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League
This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2012|
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- Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2006. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend on a Good Thing? Empirical Evidence on Heterogeneity in the Consumer Response to Match Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 0048, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2008.
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- Feddersen, Arne & Humphreys, Brad & Soebbing, Brian, 2012. "Cost Incentives in European Football," Working Papers 2012-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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