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Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Asimakopoulos

    (Edekt-Ote S.A., Athens, Greece)

  • John Goddard

    (University of Wales Swansea, UK)

Abstract

An ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-of-season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixed-odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end-of-season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:51-66
    DOI: 10.1002/for.877
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    References listed on IDEAS

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