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Association Football and Statistical Inference

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  • I. D. Hill

Abstract

A comparison of the final league tables of the 1971–72 football season, with forecasts made by Goal before the season began, shows significant positive correlation. This seems to indicate that football results are not pure chance (although there is obviously a considerable element of chance). The paper questions how the data would have been handled by statisticians who do not approve of significance tests.

Suggested Citation

  • I. D. Hill, 1974. "Association Football and Statistical Inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 23(2), pages 203-208, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:23:y:1974:i:2:p:203-208
    DOI: 10.2307/2347001
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    Cited by:

    1. Maschke Mario & Schmidt Ulrich, 2011. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status quo und Reformansätze," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 110-124, April.
    2. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Eakins, John, 2021. "Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 170-182.
    3. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
    4. Munđar Dušan & Šimić Diana, 2016. "Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 2(1), pages 15-23, September.
    5. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.

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