IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Stochastic Population Forecast for Germany and its Consequence for the German Pension System

Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-009.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-009.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-009
Contact details of provider: Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin
Phone: +49-30-2093-5708
Fax: +49-30-2093-5617
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.deEmail:


More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.