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Monetary Policy and Price of Oil

  • Jan Hošek
  • Luboš Komárek
  • Martin Motl

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b.

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Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Politická ekonomie.

Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 22-46

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2011:y:2011:i:1:id:770:p:22-46
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  2. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, 05.
  3. Karin Wagner, 2008. "Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the United States – Any Solutions Available?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 124–134.
  4. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  8. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(1), pages 3-23.
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