Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration
In this paper we develop a multivariate threshold vector error correction model of spot and forward exchange rates that allows for different forms of equilibrium reversion in each of the cointegrating residual series. By introducing the notion of an indicator matrix to differentiate between the various regimes in the set of nonlinear processes we provide a convenient framework for estimation by OLS. Empirically, out-of sample forecasting exercises demonstrate its superiority over a linear VECM, while being unable to out-predict a (driftless) random walk model. As such we provide empirical evidence against the findings of Clarida and Taylor (1997).
|Date of creation:||Mar 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1982.
"The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, . "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," Working Paper 32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
- Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2003.
"Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models,"
ESE Discussion Papers
104, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Wolff, Christian C. P., 1988.
"Exchange rates, innovations and forecasting,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 49-61, March.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:533-76 is not listed on IDEAS
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Perez, Maria-Teresa, 2003.
"Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2219-2242, September.
- Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Marı́a & Pérez, Marı́a-Teresa, 2003. "Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2219-2242.
- Maria-Teresa Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley, 2001. "Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series," Working Papers wp01-09, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Hansen,B.E., 1999.
"Testing for linearity,"
7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Hylleberg, Svend & Mizon, Grayham E, 1989. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 113-25, Supplemen.
- Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
- Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
- Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.