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Threshold cointegration and spatial price transmission when expectations matter

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  • Lence, Sergio
  • Moschini, Giancarlo
  • Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano

Abstract

We examine the performance of the threshold cointegration approach, specifically Band- TVECM, to price transmission analysis in an explicit context where trade decisions are made based on expectation of final prices, because trade takes time. We find that, following a standard inference strategy, a large portion of three-regime cases are not identified as such. Results show that transfer costs are systematically underestimated, particularly in three- regime models. The speed of price transmission is also biased in three-regime models. Furthermore, inferences about occurrence of trade are poor, with estimated models suggesting far lower market integration than is true in the data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Lence, Sergio & Moschini, Giancarlo & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and spatial price transmission when expectations matter," MPRA Paper 80202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yizao Liu & Xuan Chen & Adam N. Rabinowitz, 2019. "The role of retail market power and state regulations in the heterogeneity of farm‐retail price transmission of private label and branded products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 91-99, January.
    2. Machado Junior, Pedro Celso & Chung, Chanjin, 2018. "Spatial Price Transmission, Transaction Costs, and Econometric Modelling: How Inference Can Be Improved When Transaction Costs Are Observed?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273993, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Monika Roman, 2020. "Spatial Integration of the Milk Market in Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Machado Junior, Pedro Celso & Chung, Chanjin, 2018. "Spatial Price Transmission, Transaction Costs, and Econometric Modelling: How Inference Can Be Improved When Transaction Costs Are Observed?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274841, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Band-TVECM; market integration; price transmission; threshold cointegration; transfer costs;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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