Is Italy on Track? A Data-Driven Forecast for Road Transport Decarbonisation by 2030

The European Union’s decarbonisation strategy necessitates profound shifts across all sectors, with road transport presenting a particularly formidable challenge due to its sustained emissions growth since 1990. Given that Italy’s road transport sector is the third-largest consumer of fossil fuels in Europe, its role is pivotal in achieving these collective climate objectives. This study employs grey forecasting models to assess the projected contribution of alternative fuels – specifically biodiesel, bio-gasoline, biomethane, and electricity – to Italy’s 2030 decarbonisation pathway. The results suggest that consumption of these energy carriers will reach around 5 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent), representing a threefold increase compared to 2022 levels. While our analysis forecasts that biomethane, will entirely displace its fossil counterpart and that electricity consumption will expand considerably, the progress in the use of liquid biofuels could be lower than that reported in Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). According to grey models, in 2030, alternative fuels could meet one-sixth of the final energy demand for Italian road transport: a considerable improvement from current levels but less than the two-fifths share needed to align with the EU’s broader decarbonisation objectives. The findings suggest that the decarbonisation of road transport, largely attributed to the use of biofuels, is currently outpacing the progress achieved through the electrification of the vehicle fleet. This underscores the imperative of adopting a holistic strategy that leverages the full potential of all technologies. Such a unified design is essential to foster synergy and expedite the achievement of climate objectives in a manner that is both efficient and inclusive.