IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pab/rmcpee/v6y2008i1p23-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of individual automobile reported but not settled claim reserves for bodily injuries in the context of Solvency II = Predicción de las reservas individuales para siniestros del automóvil con daños corporales pendientes de liquidación en el contexto de Solvencia II

Author

Listed:
  • Ayuso Gutierrez, M. Mercedes

    () (Departament d’Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Santolino Prieto, Miguel Á.

    () (Departament d’Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported but not Settled claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project, a statistical model is implemented for reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology improves the accuracy of reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners. = Los siniestros del automóvil con daños corporales suelen permanecer sin liquidar durante largos periodos después del accidente. Una adecuada estimación por siniestros comunicados pero no liquidados es por tanto de vital importancia para los aseguradores. Siguiendo las recomendaciones incluidas en el proyecto de Solvencia II, se implementa un método estadístico para la estimación de la reserva. En concreto, se observa que el coste de compensación se distribuye lognormalmente para diferentes niveles de gravedad del daño corporal. La provisión individual del siniestro la estimamos asignando el valor esperado de compensación media según la gravedad predicha de la lesión de la víctima, para la cual también se calcula el límite superior. La gravedad la predecimos mediante un modelo heterocedástico de elección múltiple, porque hallamos evidencias de que la variabilidad en la gravedad latente no es constante para los individuos que viajaban en un turismo. Se demuestra que la metodología propuesta mejora la precisión en la estimación de las reservas en todas las etapas, en comparación con la valoración subjetiva que ha sido tradicionalmente hecha por los peritos de la compañía.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayuso Gutierrez, M. Mercedes & Santolino Prieto, Miguel Á., 2008. "Prediction of individual automobile reported but not settled claim reserves for bodily injuries in the context of Solvency II = Predicción de las reservas individuales para siniestros del automóvil co," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 6(1), pages 23-41, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:6:y:2008:i:1:p:23-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/RevMetCuant/art22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/RevMetCuant/art22.txt
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larsen, Christian Roholte, 2007. "An Individual Claims Reserving Model," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 113-132, May.
    2. England, P. D. & Verrall, R. J., 2006. "Predictive Distributions of Outstanding Liabilities in General Insurance," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 221-270, September.
    3. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 443-518, August.
    4. Ayuso, Mercedes & Santolino, Miguel, 2007. "Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 71-83, July.
    5. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 95-115, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automobile accident; Solvency II; bodily injury claims; individual reported but not settled reserve (RBNS). ; accidente de automóvil; Solvencia II; siniestros con daños corporales; reserva individual para siniestros pendientes de liquidación;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:6:y:2008:i:1:p:23-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publicación Digital - UPO). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dmupoes.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.