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Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II


  • Mercedes Ayuso

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Miguel Santolino

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)


Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercedes Ayuso & Miguel Santolino, 2008. "Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II," IREA Working Papers 200806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:200806

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Larsen, Christian Roholte, 2007. "An Individual Claims Reserving Model," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 113-132, May.
    2. Ayuso, Mercedes & Santolino, Miguel, 2007. "Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 71-83, July.
    3. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 443-518, August.
    4. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 95-115, May.
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    Automobile accident; Solvency II; bodily injury claims; individual RBNS reserve..;

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