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A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

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  • Lluís Bermúdez

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Antoni Ferri

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Montse Guillén

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lluís Bermúdez & Antoni Ferri & Montse Guillén, 2011. "A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation," IREA Working Papers 201113, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201113
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