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COMFORT: A common market factor non-Gaussian returns model

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  • Paolella, Marc S.
  • Polak, Paweł

Abstract

A new multivariate time series model with various attractive properties is motivated and studied. By extending the CCC model in several ways, it allows for all the primary stylized facts of financial asset returns, including volatility clustering, non-normality (excess kurtosis and asymmetry), and also dynamics in the dependency between assets over time. A fast EM-algorithm is developed for estimation. Each element of the vector return at time t is endowed with a common univariate shock, interpretable as a common market factor. This leads to the new model being a hybrid of GARCH and stochastic volatility, but without the estimation problems associated with the latter, and being applicable in the multivariate setting for potentially large numbers of assets. A feasible technique which allows for multivariate option pricing is presented, along with an empirical illustration.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolella, Marc S. & Polak, Paweł, 2015. "COMFORT: A common market factor non-Gaussian returns model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 593-605.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:187:y:2015:i:2:p:593-605
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.02.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:jfinec:v:15:y:2017:i:2:p:247-285. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Econometric analysis of financial derivatives: An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 403-407.
    3. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2014. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2015-02, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Claudio, Morana, 2018. "Regularized semiparametric estimation of high dimensional dynamic conditional covariance matrices," Working Papers 382, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 04 Jun 2018.
    5. Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
    6. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Gian Luca Tassinari & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2016. "Riding With The Four Horsemen And The Multivariate Normal Tempered Stable Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-28, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CCC; Common jumps; Density forecasting; EM-algorithm; Fat tails; GARCH; Multivariate asymmetric variance gamma distribution; Multivariate generalized hyperbolic distribution; Multivariate option pricing; Stochastic volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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