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Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

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  • Lux, Thomas

Abstract

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates could be essentially meaningless if convergence to the true parameters is not guaranteed in the pertinent problem. We provide some evidence here that such a lack of identification is responsible for the inconclusive results reported in recent literature on parameter estimates for a certain class of nonlinear behavioral New Keynesian models. We also show that identifiability depends on the subtle details of the model structure. Hence, a careful investigation of identifiability should preceed any attempt at estimation of such models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lux, Thomas, 2024. "Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model," Economics Working Papers 2024-02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:300523
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral macro; identification; forecast heuristics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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