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Ergodicity of observation-driven time series models and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator

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  • Douc, R.
  • Doukhan, P.
  • Moulines, E.

Abstract

This paper deals with a general class of observation-driven time series models with a special focus on time series of counts. We provide conditions under which there exist strict-sense stationary and ergodic versions of such processes. The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators is then derived for well-specified and misspecified models.

Suggested Citation

  • Douc, R. & Doukhan, P. & Moulines, E., 2013. "Ergodicity of observation-driven time series models and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2620-2647.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:123:y:2013:i:7:p:2620-2647
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2013.04.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Rahbek, Anders & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1430-1439.
    2. René Ferland & Alain Latour & Driss Oraichi, 2006. "Integer-Valued GARCH Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 923-942, November.
    3. Doukhan, Paul & Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2012. "On weak dependence conditions for Poisson autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 942-948.
    4. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2011. "Log-linear Poisson autoregression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 563-578, March.
    5. Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Some recent theory for autoregressive count time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(3), pages 413-438, September.
    6. Richard A. Davis, 2003. "Observation-driven models for Poisson counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 777-790, December.
    7. J. Pfanzagl, 1969. "On the measurability and consistency of minimum contrast estimates," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 249-272, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Tingguo & Xiao, Han & Chen, Rong, 2015. "Generalized ARMA models with martingale difference errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 492-506.
    2. Lux, Thomas, 2017. "Estimation of agent-based models using sequential Monte Carlo methods," Economics Working Papers 2017-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:eee:stapro:v:134:y:2018:i:c:p:15-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stella Kitromilidou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2016. "Mallows’ quasi-likelihood estimation for log-linear Poisson autoregressions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 337-361, October.
    5. Fukang Zhu & Lei Shi & Shuangzhe Liu, 2015. "Influence diagnostics in log-linear integer-valued GARCH models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(3), pages 311-335, July.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:391-408 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ajay Jasra, 2015. "Approximate Bayesian Computation for a Class of Time Series Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(3), pages 405-435, December.

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