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Log-linear Poisson autoregression

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  • Fokianos, Konstantinos
  • Tjøstheim, Dag
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    Abstract

    We consider a log-linear model for time series of counts. This type of model provides a framework where both negative and positive association can be taken into account. In addition time dependent covariates are accommodated in a straightforward way. We study its probabilistic properties and maximum likelihood estimation. It is shown that a perturbed version of the process is geometrically ergodic, and, under some conditions, it approaches the non-perturbed version. In addition, it is proved that the maximum likelihood estimator of the vector of unknown parameters is asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated. The results are based on minimal assumptions and can be extended to the case of log-linear regression with continuous exogenous variables. The theory is applied to aggregated financial transaction time series. In particular, we discover positive association between the number of transactions and the volatility process of a certain stock.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047-259X(10)00232-0
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multivariate Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 102 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 563-578

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:102:y:2011:i:3:p:563-578
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    Keywords: Autocorrelation Covariates Ergodicity Generalized linear models Perturbation Prediction Stationarity Volatility;

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    1. Konstantinos Fokianos & Anders Rahbek & Dag Tjøstheim, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2009-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    3. René Ferland & Alain Latour & Driss Oraichi, 2006. "Integer-Valued GARCH Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 923-942, November.
    4. Konstantinos Fokianos & Benjamin Kedem, 2004. "Partial Likelihood Inference For Time Series Following Generalized Linear Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 173-197, 03.
    5. Richard A. Davis, 2003. "Observation-driven models for Poisson counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 777-790, December.
    6. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.
    7. Jensen, S ren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1203-1226, December.
    8. Yunwei Cui & Robert Lund, 2009. "A new look at time series of counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(4), pages 781-792.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moysiadis, Theodoros & Fokianos, Konstantinos, 2014. "On binary and categorical time series models with feedback," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 209-228.
    2. Doukhan, Paul & Fokianos, Konstantinos & Li, Xiaoyin, 2012. "On weak dependence conditions: The case of discrete valued processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(11), pages 1941-1948.
    3. Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Rejoinder on: Some recent theory for autoregressive count time series," TEST- An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(3), pages 469-476, September.
    4. Konstantinos Fokianos & Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Nonlinear Poisson autoregression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 64(6), pages 1205-1225, December.
    5. Fukang Zhu & Lei Shi & Shuangzhe Liu, 2015. "Influence diagnostics in log-linear integer-valued GARCH models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(3), pages 311-335, July.
    6. Anne Leucht & Michael Neumann, 2013. "Degenerate $$U$$ - and $$V$$ -statistics under ergodicity: asymptotics, bootstrap and applications in statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(2), pages 349-386, April.
    7. Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Some recent theory for autoregressive count time series," TEST- An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(3), pages 413-438, September.
    8. Douc, R. & Doukhan, P. & Moulines, E., 2013. "Ergodicity of observation-driven time series models and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2620-2647.
    9. Ahmad, Ali & Francq, Christian, 2014. "Poisson qmle of count time series models," MPRA Paper 59804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Doukhan, Paul & Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2012. "On weak dependence conditions for Poisson autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 942-948.
    11. Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C., 2013. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," MPRA Paper 48376, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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