VAR-ing the economy of the Netherlands
This paper adopts the vector autoregression (VAR) approach to modelling the economy of the Netherlands. A VAR system with four endogenous variables---gross domestic product, inflation, the capital market interest rate and the money market interest rate---is built. The small, open character of the Dutch economy suggests the inclusion of foreign exogenous variables, so we also construct a VARX system (with world trade and the German capital market and money market rates as exogenous variables). Both the VAR system and the VARX system are estimated with error-correction mechanisms to take proper account of the non-stationarity of the variables. The VAR system and the VARX system are compared to the IBS-CCSO model, a structural macroeconometric model of the economy of the Netherlands. Compared to the IBS-CCSO model, the VAR system gives better results for production and inflation, whereas the structural macroeconometric IBS-CCSO model is to be preferred for the interest rates. The VARX system outperforms not only the VAR system but also the IBS-CCSO model.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen|
Phone: 31 50 363 3749
Fax: 31 50 363 3720
Web page: http://www.rug.nl/research/som-ri/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995.
"The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries,"
BIS Working Papers
26, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jakob De Haan & Jan Egbert Sturm, 1995. "Is it real? The relationship between real deficits and real growth: new evidence using long-run data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 98-102.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- John W. Keating, 1992. "Structural approaches to vector autoregressions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-57.
- Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1991. " Large-Scale Econometric Models of National Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 283-314.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
- Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983.
Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP 516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Jacobs, Jan & Sterken, Elmer, 1995. "The IBS-CCSO quarterly model of the Netherlands Specification, simulation and analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 111-163, April.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "A Statistical Approach to Economic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:ccsowp:0024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.