IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00142773.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Karine Michalon

    () (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sandrine Lardic

    (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Dossou

    (SINOPIA AM - Sinopia AM - Sinopia AM)

Abstract

The evaluation of the reliability of analysts' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order to identify the unanticipated component of earnings, institutional investors make considerable use of analysts' forecasts when evaluating and selecting individual sharesand the performance of analysts' forecasts sheds light on the process by which agents form expectations about key economic and financial variables. The recent period put forward a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations: the latter tend to over-estimate earnings. In this paper, we study the properties of this bias according to various aspects, that is to say according to country, sector, but also according to the size of the companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Karine Michalon & Sandrine Lardic & François Dossou, 2005. "Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis," Post-Print halshs-00142773, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00142773
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00142773v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00142773v2/document
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 531-562.
    3. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    4. Conroy, Robert M. & Harris, Robert S., 1995. "Analysts' earnings forecasts in Japan: Accuracy and sell-side optimism," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 393-408, December.
    5. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    6. repec:bla:joares:v:20:y:1982:i:2:p:724-732 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brous, Peter A. & Kini, Omesh, 1993. "A reexamination of analysts' earnings forecasts for takeover targets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 201-225, April.
    8. repec:bla:joares:v:18:y:1980:i:2:p:390-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings forecasts; bias; consensus; prévisions de bénéfices; biais;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00142773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.