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Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China

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Listed:
  • Hu, Jun
  • Long, Wenbin
  • Luo, Le
  • Peng, Yuanhuai

Abstract

This study examines the relation between share pledging by controlling shareholders and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts. Using a sample of listed Chinese firms from 2007 to 2018, we find that analysts make more optimistic forecasts for firms whose controlling shareholders have pledged their shares for bank loans and whose share pledge ratio is high. This relation is stronger for firms with poor prior stock performance, for firms located in regions with a high level of marketization, and for analysts who have close connections with firms, but is weaker for reputable analysts and those from larger broker firms. In addition, analyst optimism becomes weaker when the share-pledging loan approaches the end of the term and when the analyst forecast date is closer to the earnings announcement, and becomes more pronounced when analysts make forecasts over a longer horizon. The results suggest that in cases of share pledging, the threat of losing controlling rights creates significant incentives for controlling shareholders to collude with analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:132:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002041
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106245
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    Cited by:

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    4. Xiao, MingFang & Cao, June & Chiang, Yao-Min, 2022. "Kiss the baby for the nurse's sake? - Guaranteeing employees' stock purchase against loss program," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Wang, Xiaoqiong & Zhen, Hongxian & Zhu, Feifei, 2023. "Voting with their feet: Controlling shareholders' share pledging and other major shareholders' strategic response," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Li, Shengnan & Zheng, Xinya & Niu, Jianbo & Ma, Xuan, 2024. "Share pledging of controlling shareholders and corporate social responsibility disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    7. Guo, Kai & Ke, Bin & Tang, Song, 2023. "Private firms' financial constraints and share pledging by controlling shareholders of publicly listed firms: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Yunqi Fan & Yanwei Zhang, 2024. "Consequences of firm-specific stock price crashes on analyst forecasts: Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Han, Han & Zhao, Xueqing & Wang, Zhibin, 2023. "The effect of stock pledge on corporate fraudulence: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Luo, Danglun & Piao, Zhirong & Wu, Cen & Zhang, Frank Feida, 2024. "Collateral damage: Evidence from share pledging in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. He, Mingfeng & Huang, Dengshi & Zhou, Jianan, 2023. "The impacts of share pledging on firm investment timing and valuation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Zuo, Yu & Bai, Tao, 2024. "Major shareholder equity pledges and the risk of stock price crash based on external audit quality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Tian, Zhongliang & Tang, Ruoyuan & Liu, Wenhe & Qi, Yuan, 2024. "Controlling shareholder's equity pledge and corporate financialization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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    Keywords

    Share pledging; Controlling shareholder; Analyst forecast optimism; Incentive to collude;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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