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Irrational Analysts' Expectations as a Cause of Excess Volatility in Stock Prices

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  • Bulkley, George
  • Harris, Richard D F

Abstract

This paper investigates whether excess stock price volatility may be due in part to a failure of the market to form rational expectations. Using data on analysts' expectations of long run earnings growth for individual companies, the authors report a number of interrelated results which lend support to this hypothesis. These results together imply that the cross-section of stock prices will also be excessively dispersed, so that stocks with low earnings expectations are underpriced and stocks with high earnings expectations are overpriced. As analysts' forecasts errors become apparent, stock prices adjust accordingly and so excess returns accrue. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D F, 1997. "Irrational Analysts' Expectations as a Cause of Excess Volatility in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 359-371, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:441:p:359-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    2. repec:nax:conyad:v:62:y:2017:i:4:p:1345-1360 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:nax:conyad:v:62:y:2017:i:4:p:1361-1376 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gordon Burt, 1997. "Cultural Convergence in Historical Cultural Space-Time," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(4), pages 291-305, December.
    5. Gurjeet Dhesi & Marcel Ausloos, 2016. "Modelling and Measuring the Irrational behaviour of Agents in Financial Markets: Discovering the Psychological Soliton," Papers 1601.01553, arXiv.org.
    6. George Buckley & Richard W P Holt, 1999. "Forecasting Cross-Section Stock Returns using Theoretical Prices Estimated from an Econometric Model," ESE Discussion Papers 47, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. CharlesKaYui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2010. "Stock Price Volatility, Negative Autocorrelation And The Consumption-Wealth Ratio: The Case Of Constant Fundamentals," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 224-245, May.
    8. Walid Saleh, 2014. "Explaining the Cross-Sectional Patterns of UK Expected Stock Returns: The Effect of Intangibles," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 160-170, April.
    9. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
    10. Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.
    11. Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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