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Irrational Analysts' Expectations as a Cause of Excess Volatility in Stock Prices

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  • Bulkley, George
  • Harris, Richard D F

Abstract

This paper investigates whether excess stock price volatility may be due in part to a failure of the market to form rational expectations. Using data on analysts' expectations of long run earnings growth for individual companies, the authors report a number of interrelated results which lend support to this hypothesis. These results together imply that the cross-section of stock prices will also be excessively dispersed, so that stocks with low earnings expectations are underpriced and stocks with high earnings expectations are overpriced. As analysts' forecasts errors become apparent, stock prices adjust accordingly and so excess returns accrue. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D F, 1997. "Irrational Analysts' Expectations as a Cause of Excess Volatility in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 359-371, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:441:p:359-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Benjamin Duarte Duarte & Leonardo Hernán Talero Sarmiento & Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez, 2017. "Evaluación del efecto de la psicología del inversionista en un mercado bursátil artificial mediante su grado de eficiencia," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1345-1360, Octubre-D.
    2. Theo Offerman & Joep Sonnemans, 2004. "What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(3), pages 533-554, October.
    3. Gordon Burt, 1997. "Cultural Convergence in Historical Cultural Space-Time," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(4), pages 291-305, December.
    4. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Maryam Abid & Danish Ahmed Siddique, 2020. "Impact of Financial Market Uncertainty on Market Returns: A Global Analysis," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 216-244, September.
    6. George Buckley & Richard W P Holt, 1999. "Forecasting Cross-Section Stock Returns using Theoretical Prices Estimated from an Econometric Model," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 47, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan‐Kuang Chen, 2010. "Stock Price Volatility, Negative Autocorrelation And The Consumption–Wealth Ratio: The Case Of Constant Fundamentals," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 224-245, May.
    8. Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2005. "Imperfect Information and Stock Market Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 173-194, May.
    9. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2013. "Rational Valuation Formula (RVF) and Time Variability in Asset Rates of Return," MPRA Paper 79460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    11. Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    12. Alan Gregory, 2005. "The Long Run Abnormal Performance of UK Acquirers and the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5‐6), pages 777-814, June.
    13. Juan Benjamin Duarte Duarte & Leonardo Hernán Talero Sarmiento & Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez, 2017. "Evaluation of the effect of investor psychology on an artificial stock market through its degree of efficiency," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1361-1376, Octubre-D.
    14. Acar Berkan & Becchetti Leonardo & Manfredonia Stefano, 2021. "Media coverage, corporate social irresponsibility conduct, and financial analysts' performance," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1456-1470, September.
    15. Gurjeet Dhesi & Marcel Ausloos, 2016. "Modelling and Measuring the Irrational behaviour of Agents in Financial Markets: Discovering the Psychological Soliton," Papers 1601.01553, arXiv.org.
    16. Alan Gregory & Walid Saleh & Jon Tucker, 2005. "A UK Test of an Inflation‐Adjusted Ohlson Model," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3‐4), pages 487-534, April.
    17. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 55-78, July.
    18. Jiajun Jiang & Qi Liu & Bo Sun, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual-return Relation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1300, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Ausloos, Marcel, 2016. "Modelling and measuring the irrational behaviour of agents in financial markets: Discovering the psychological solitonAuthor-Name: Dhesi, Gurjeet," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 119-125.
    20. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Walid Saleh, 2014. "Explaining the Cross-Sectional Patterns of UK Expected Stock Returns: The Effect of Intangibles," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 160-170, April.
    22. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
    23. Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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