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Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data

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  • Pérez, Javier J.
  • Sánchez, Jesús

Abstract

Do public sector wages exert pressures on private sector wages, or has the private sector a leadership role in wage setting? This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity, institutions) for the main euro area economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the periods 1980-2007 and 1991-2007. It exploits available quarterly information not yet used in the literature, and combines different data sources in the framework of mixed-frequencies time series models. The quarterly frequency of our data allows us to check the existence of purely intra-annual links between public and private sector wages (signalling effect). There is strong evidence of public wages’ leadership, either in conjunction with bi-directional links from the private sector (Germany and Spain) or pure public wage leadership (France in the sample 1991-2007, Italy for within-the-year linkages). JEL Classification: C32, C53, J30, J51, J52, E62, E63, H50, H6

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez, Javier J. & Sánchez, Jesús, 2010. "Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data," Working Paper Series 1148, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam & D'Adamo, Gaetano & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2014. "Wage leadership models: A country-by-country analysis of the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 2-11.
    2. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.
    3. Lorenzo Forni & Natalija Novta, 2016. "Public employment and compensation reform: the role of social dialogue and structural measures," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(5), pages 960-979, October.
    4. Marzinotto, Benedicta & Turrini, Alessandro, 2016. "Co-movements between Public and Private Wages in the EU: Which Factors Play a Role?," IZA Discussion Papers 9964, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Pericoli, 2014. "Till labor cost do us part," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 371-395, September.
    6. Florence Jaumotte & Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 10/139, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    causal graph; causality; government wages; Mixed frequency data; private sector wages; signalling;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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